Cost

The supporters claim: The renovation will cost $21,508,000.

False. The total cost will actually be $36,333,036.00. The number being promoted by the school district is only the principal. It does not include the interest on the bond.

The supporters claim: The project is fully funded.

False. Over $6.2 million is unfunded and will have to be paid at once (a “balloon payment”) at the end of the bond period.

See the attached spreadhseet, which shows the truth. The numbers come directly from Mascoma Savings Bank, who will be providing the bond to the school.

Enrollment

The supporters claim: Enrollment may be dropping, but a renovated high school will attract students to the district.

False. Enrollments are dropping all over the nation. It is not because people are moving away from Mascoma due to the state of the school, but because the actual incoming student population is shrinking everywhere. According to statistics from NH.gov, the state population under age 15 will decline from 232,182 in 2010 to 198,688 in 2040.

New Hampshire’s child population growth is expected to go down until at least 2040. Source.

The absolute number of births will decline from about 63,000 in the 2010 to 2015 period to 59,000 in the 2035 to 2040 period as a result of continued low levels of fertility and an ageing population.

The population age 85 and over will increase from 24,761 in 2010 to 81,990 in 2040, an increase of 57,229.

The population under age 15 will decline from 232,182 in 2010 to 198,688 in 2040 and fall from 17.6 percent to 13.9 percent as a proportion of the total population.

Projected births by years:
2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030–2035 2035–2040
Grafton 3,751 3,548 3,161 3,089 3,400 3,650

More to come soon…